The Pattern We Refuse to See

Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles rupture wasn’t a freak injury—it followed a predictable pattern we’ve seen before.

Author’s Note: This post is a bit different than some of my recent writing on research integrity and statistical illusions. But sports performance and injury narratives are another area where I’ve done a lot of work — and a few more sports-related pieces are coming soon. If you’re new here, this one might read a little more clinically, but it gets at something I think is crucial: how we talk about risk, responsibility, and reality when something goes wrong.

The Tendon Was Already Warning Us

On Sunday night, Tyrese Haliburton collapsed with a non-contact injury in the first quarter of Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Reports say he tore his Achilles tendon. It was a shocking injury — unless you were paying attention.

Haliburton had been playing on a strained calf since Game 5. As unfortunate as the ruptured tendon is, this pattern is one we’ve seen before.

That may sound callous, but it’s not. It’s clinical. This wasn’t just a coincidence. In high-performance sports, catastrophic tendon ruptures are rarely random. They’re typically preceded by known risk factors, including overload, altered mechanics, or — most tellingly — prior soft tissue injury. We might also add certain types of antibiotics (fluoroquinolones) to that list.

His calf strain was a clear signal that the system was compromised. The Achilles rupture was the consequence of pushing through it. But rather than connect the dots, the immediate reaction followed a familiar script: shock, heartbreak, and the labeling of the injury as a “freak accident.” Indeed, it is emotional, but definitely not unpredictable.

We’ve seen this before, so let’s explore.

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Greenlaw on Grass, Rodgers on Turf

Haliburton’s injury is the latest in a string of high-profile Achilles ruptures. But what’s striking isn’t just the similarity of the injuries—it’s how differently they’re discussed.

During SuperBowl LVIII, San Francisco 49er’s linebacker Dre Greenlaw suffered one of the most bizarre injuries in Super Bowl history. As he attempted to step onto the field, he suddenly collapsed to the ground as his Achilles tendon snapped. It was the epitome of a “non-contact” football injury — devastating a player with an inspirational background story. Another “freak” injury. News stories covered the unusual nature of the injury, the emotional toll it had on his teammates, and how it affected the game.

One thing they didn’t emphasize? The field. Greenlaw’s injury happened on natural grass. There was no backlash. No petitions. No league-wide blame campaign.

In contrast, rewind to September 2023, when NY Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered the exact same injury, rupturing his Achilles in the aftermath of being tackled. Immediately, the artificial turf playing surface was blamed as the cause of Rodgers’s Achilles tendon rupture, and this reignited the call for banning synthetic fields. Within 48 hours of Rodger’s season-ending injury, the NFL Players Association was calling for a switch to natural grass fields. The injury wasn’t just unfortunate — it was framed as avoidable on a different surface.

Same injury. Different narrative. And THAT matters.

Nobody blamed Haliburton’s hardwood court. Nobody blamed the grass Greenlaw played on. The outrage only surfaced — literally — when it was turf. That selective attention reveals a deeper issue: a tendency to focus on the most visible variable, regardless of its actual role in injury risk.

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Calf Strains and Achilles Ruptures Are Not Unrelated

Haliburton’s story is too familiar. In 2019, Kevin Durant suffered a right calf strain in May during the NBA playoffs. He missed several games, then returned for Game 5 of the NBA Finals in June. Less than halfway through the game, he ruptured his right Achilles tendon. The pattern is uncanny: a calf strain, a return to high-intensity play, and a catastrophic failure.

From a biomechanical standpoint, the connection between Haliburton’s Game 5 calf strain and his Game 7 collapse is almost certainly real. The calf muscles (gastrocnemius and soleus) connect directly to the Achilles tendon. If part of that system is injured, the force redistribution places increased strain on the tendon — especially under high loading conditions like sprinting or jumping.

This isn’t speculation. It’s basic biomechanics.

Athletes often play through minor strains without consequence — but that doesn’t mean the risk disappears. It just means the tissue hasn’t failed yet. In a high-load environment like the NBA Finals, even subtle compensation can push tissue past its threshold.

Greenlaw’s story was similar. Prior to Greenlaw’s SuperBowl injury, he had “Achilles Tendonitis” and was still having issues with his tendon in the weeks leading up to the Superbowl. That history helps explain why his tendon failed.

Likewise, Aaron Rodgers had a “minor calf strain” in the preseason, before tearing his Achilles tendon in the first week of the season. He also had a calf strain earlier that year.

There’s a clear pattern here. In each case, the tendon was giving us a warning. We just didn’t listen.

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The Risk Isn’t Playing — It’s Pretending There’s No Risk

To be clear: athletes make calculated decisions to play through injuries all the time. Often they don’t suffer catastrophic consequences. But the risk is there — and we do know it.

That’s why the real issue isn’t whether Haliburton should’ve played. It’s whether we’re being honest about the risks. Was there a shared understanding between player and medical staff that continuing to play on a calf strain could dramatically increase the chance of tendon rupture?

This isn’t about shutting players down at the first sign of discomfort. It’s about informed decision-making. An editorial from the AMA Code of Medical Ethics made this clear after Greenlaw’s injury:

“Physicians treating injuries subject to high-stakes consequences should not let outside influences guide their medical treatment and ultimately have an ethical responsibility to protect the health of the patient.”

The editorial goes on to explain Opinion 1.2.5, Sports Medicine:

“states that physicians must ‘base their judgment about an individual’s participation solely on medical considerations,’ and ‘not allow the desires of spectators, promoters of the event, or even the injured individual to govern a decision about whether to remove the participant from the event.’”

In other words, medical clearance isn’t just about whether someone wants to play — it’s about whether the risk of playing is justifiable under sound clinical reasoning.

When we call these injuries “freak accidents,” or blame the surface every time, we imply that nobody could have known. That’s simply not true. The risks are known. The tendons are often warning us. The question is whether anyone is listening — and whether the culture allows doctors to act on what they hear.

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The Surface Isn’t the Villain. The Culture Might Be.

It’s tempting to think that banning artificial turf will make everything safer. But these injuries suggest otherwise. If we scapegoat the surface while ignoring other key risk factors — like playing through injury — we give the illusion of progress while the greatest drivers of injury risk remain ignored.

Indeed, there is some evidence that artificial turf can increase the risk of injuries, but it’s highly nuanced — I described these complexities in Ars Techinca in 2024.

A better playing surface may help in some scenarios. But pretending it’s the main cause of catastrophic breakdowns lets us avoid harder questions: What incentives lead players to hide injuries? How honest are the conversations between medical staff and coaches? How much autonomy should players have in making decisions that involve catastrophic injury risk? Do we reward the appearance of toughness more than we value long-term health?

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The Real Takeaway

When something breaks, people often start looking for something — or someone — to blame. The surface. The shoes. The trainer. The schedule. But the truth is that athletes break down. Even the best ones. Especially when they push through early warning signs at the highest levels of intensity.

Haliburton’s story isn’t an exception. It’s an example — case study in risk. Prior injury remains one of the biggest predictors of future injury. Pushing through pain may feel heroic — an act of loyalty to the fans and teammates. Sometimes, it works out. Other times, it ends exactly like this.

Not every injury is bad luck. Not every fix is a new rule. Sometimes the body gives a warning. And sometimes we look away.

Stay tuned! I’ve got more stories on the way that connect research and sports in unexpected ways—including Faith Kipyegon’s historic attempt to become the first woman to break the 4-minute mile, and a closer look at the science (and spectacle) behind the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. I’ll also continue digging into the nuances of research methodology, scientific integrity, and academic culture.